Thursday, July 7, 2016

Current state of the market and the economy

Beacon Economics/Christopher Thornberg, Summer, 2016. "Economic Expansion To Continue Despite Market Chaos."

"Recently, the U.S. stock markets were again in the midst of a major selloff. As the great Yogi Berra once said, “it’s like déjà vu all over again.” This represents the third major sell-off in the past year, the first two being the turmoil in August of 2015 and then again at the start of 2016. As with the last two rounds, the market’s reaction to global events is, to put it politely, completely hyperbolic.

Beacon Economics does not see any significant chance of the nation’s current economic expansion ending in the next two years, although we do see growth slowing modestly as a direct result of an over-reaction by traders, not global events.

'This isn’t to say that issues in the global economy—namely a wobbly Chinese economy and the Brexit—aren’t serious, they are,' said Beacon Economics’ Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg, one of the forecast’s authors. 'But these are serious issues that will play out over many years, not a few months, a critical distinction.' " ...  Note illustration: the graph is from this article.

Related. CNN Money/Heather Long, 7/7/16, "Is the U.S. economy at a tipping point?" "The U.S. economy hit the pause button this spring." .... " The May slowdown was a red flag. It was unexpected. If hiring continues to be low, it's a bad sign because it means businesses are really scaling back and consumers might follow their lead and pull back on spending. But fear not. Every expert surveyed by CNNMoney predicts hiring picked up in June. They think May was a fluke. ..." 

Posted by Kathy Meeh


Anonymous said...

Stock Markets=Bubble
Real Estate Markets=Bubble
Tech sector=Bubble

Anonymous said...

Pop,pop, and pop!!!

Anonymous said...

A typical wealth envy Pacifica response.
Gee I wonder why our town is such a run down hovel?
Take a shower and quit smoking bowls.