San Francisco Bay Area regional labor and sales tax outlook

Beacon Economics, 8/2/12,  Summer Edition 2012.

Labor Market.  "Much like the neighboring South Bay/Silicon Valley region, the San Francisco Metropolitan District (MD) has been among the leading regions in California’s labor market recovery. .... Education and Health employment, another sector contributing heavily to the overall state recovery, has also done well in the San Francisco region over the last year... 

Bright Bay Area economic outlook by 2015

....  Beacon Economics is forecasting steady growth for San Francisco employment in the quarters and years to come, with total nonfarm employment reaching its pre-recession peak by the end of 2014 and the unemployment rate falling below 6% by the middle of 2015."

Sales Tax.  In the first quarter of 2012, taxable sales levels in the San Francisco MD passed their pre-recession peak, set in the second quarter of 2008, and now stand at all-time record high levels. On a year-over-year basis, taxable sales have grown 10.7% since the first quarter of 2011, reinforcing the region’s leading role in the state’s broader economic recovery, not just the labor market.

....  Beacon Economics is forecasting taxable sales levels in the San Francisco MD to grow at a 10% annualized rate for the remainder of 2012. In 2013-2014 taxable sales growth will likely slow to the 3-4% range as the economy transitions from recovery to sustained growth, and then speed up slightly in 2016 and beyond to the 5%-6% range, which is in line with the region’s long run taxable sales growth over the last two decades."

Posted by Kathy Meeh