Saturday, September 25, 2010

What's the stock market doing?

Dow 10,860, NASDAQ 2,381, 10 year Treasury yield 2.61%, US Dollar to Euro equivalent $1.3494 

 September and this year look like a normal stock market pattern with usual Federal Reserve adjustments. The stock market tends to rise toward the end of September, closing near the end-of-the-year highs (even with investors taking capital gains or losses at the end of December)*.  The current stock market is functioning at lower levels than a few years ago, of course, the result of a severe recession that wipe-out of 1/3rd of world wealth. ^

From, (the site is subscription and the Barron's, 9/25/10 full article is otherwise blocked).  "As it happens, Bernanke's Aug. 27 speech has proved to be a turning point, for the financial markets at least. The headlong slide in long-Treasury yields has been halted, at least temporarily, while stocks have rallied smartly. September, reputedly the worst month for stocks*, is shaping up as the strongest since April 2009, near the beginning of equities' liftoff. According to Wilshire Associates, the U.S. stock market is up 9.65% for the month, adding some $1.2 trillion to equity investors' wealth.
JP Morgan Chase economists Bruce Kasman and Robert Mellman observe in a research note that other factors are affecting the markets, including less-dire economic reports and prospects that November elections will bring a more pro-business Congress. "However," they said, "market movements appear to be directly responding to the signal from the Fed. In addition to equities, that would include currencies and market-based inflation indicators, which evidently took the Fed at its word. The U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, had a clear technical breakdown on the charts— even with the Bank of Japan working to weaken the yen. The euro also rose to its highest since April, close to $1.35."  

* Note:  Historically September is considered the worst month for stock, that "market return negative" long term seems to be only -1.5%. October can be much more volatile.  And, then again. (article and video from "Nightly Business Report" PBS, 9/16/10).  The real question for me is not normal market behavior, but whether the regulations and regulators will sufficiently protect investors going forward.  

Additional references ^
Where we go from here. Investment News article 9/24/10.
Technical end to the recession 6/2009 Los Angeles Business Examiner 9/25/10.

Personal investment strategy Personal Finance 9/25/10.

^The non-article commentary areas above are my personal observation from having been a registered representative (stock broker, registered principal) as part of my total financial business over 25 years, and does not in any way constitute professional advisement. 

Posted by Kathy Meeh


Anonymous said...

Day traders, like George Soros and computerized traders, are the only ones playing the market. Forgot "the Government" also is doing an excellent job keeping the stock market from crashing.

Government Motors (GM) is due to make some profit, they sold shares to China. Is this legal, or is it just an unspoken rule in America that we don't sell shares of US Business to Communist Countries?

Everyday investors have pulled their money out of the stock market and are investing in; consumer staples,precious metals, agriculture. Majority do not trust our government and how they are manipulating the US Stock Market.

Government has taken over; Banks, Health Care, US Car Manufacturers, Nationalizing Education, Farms.

Some Communist countries are; moving away from communism and towards capitalism.
America is; Capitalism to Communism.

Anonymoose said...


Anonymous said...

A stimulus program that directly paid people's salaries is set to expire on Thursday, which could lead to a sudden jump in unemployment.

Anonymous said...

#18 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

20 Signs That The Economic Collapse Has Already Begun For One Out Of Every Seven Americans

Kathy Meeh said...

Anon @ 2:11pm, most of the stimulus money loaned to big business namely banks and can manufacturers has been paid back, and the government made a profit. I'm not looking it up for your lazy benefit.

Common concerns for this country are rightfully nationalized. And your mom probably likes and relies upon her social security and medicare (which are both in part "earned benefits").

And in this country similar to other civilized countries is it better that people have health care, rather than die on the street. In 2005 (a good year for business) 46.5 million Americans did not have health insurance. A more efficient, organized way of dealing with this issue rather piecemeal or not at all is through government. States have been spotty on regulation, and cannot be as effective. The private insurers do have a major role in health care delivery, and that is not likely to end.

It is clear a continued quality level of education is needed in this country. More money is needed for that purpose and at the higher education level as well-- not less.

A lawless, uneducated country for comparison would be say Somalia.

Kathy Meeh said...

Typo first sentence... Most of the stimulus money loaned to big business namely banks and car manufacturers has been paid back, and the government made a profit.

Car manufactures, not can manufacturers.