Thursday, June 10, 2010

John Horgan: Don't look for a conservative rebellion in San Mateo County

Posted: 06/02/2010 06:15:34 PM PDT
Updated: 06/02/2010 11:33:46 PM PDT

Tuesday's primary election is expected to produce some instructive, and perhaps surprising, results in California and other parts of the country, but probably not in San Mateo County.

And barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Republican Party will continue to play a very minor role here in November's general election.

No matter how you look at our latest voter registration figures, the GOP is little more than a political footnote in San Mateo County. A trend that began years ago persists. Independents actually outnumber Republicans on the Peninsula.

Countywide, Democrats have more than a 2-to-1 edge in total registrations. Some cities — such as East Palo Alto, Pacifica, Daly City, Brisbane and South San Francisco — are so hard-core that Republicans are barely on the radar screen at all.

Tiny Colma is about 6-to-1 for Democrats — and that doesn't include those buried in the town's various cemeteries. The registration of the deceased has not been tabulated. Thank goodness.

Only two wealthy hamlets, Atherton and Hillsborough, have more registered Republicans than Democrats. And, even there, the margins are not overwhelming for the party of Lincoln.

Flexing muscles  

So in a year when conservatives are flexing their muscles in other parts of California and in other states, don't anticipate much of an insurrection occurring here. Some sort of tea  party rebellion along the Peninsula sounds interesting on paper, but reality would dictate otherwise.

There are two factors that could alter that Peninsula equation in November: a massive shift by independents to the GOP and stay-at-home behavior by the Democrats.

But that's asking a lot if you are a right-leaning type interested in seeing a marked change in the county's voting habits.

Frankly, we aren't betting on it in this corner. It's simply too much to ask, especially if you look at the region's liberal voting history.

Original story...

Posted by Steve Sinai

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