Friday, February 28, 2014

Climate change, the latest scientific view: its still real


The serious issues regarding climate (warming) change are real.  That does not negate the need to resolve outstanding questions.

The Daily Journal/Associated Press/Seth Borenstein, 2/27/14.  "Science academies explain global warming reality." 

....  "The U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society, which is the national scientific academy of the United Kingdom, are releasing an unusual plain language report on climate change that addressed 20 issues in a question-and-answer format.

Humans !
....  The report said that while the rate of warming is slower in the 2000s than it was in the 1990s it doesn’t negate the 150 years of observations that show the world is warming. The report also says that more the 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases lately has been absorbed into the oceans’ deep water, which for a while slows surface warming but not the long-term trend.

 ....  “We’ve changed the chemical composition of the atmosphere; that’s not a belief system. We know that beyond shadow of a doubt,” Santer said in an interview. “We ignore this at our peril."  Read more.

Reference National Academies of Sciences/News, 2/27/14.  News Release:  "U.S. National Academy of Sciences, U.K. Royal Society Release Joint Publication on Climate Change," as follows:

"The U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society, the national science academy of the U.K., released a joint publication today in Washington, D.C., that explains the clear evidence that humans are causing the climate to change, and that addresses a variety of other key questions commonly asked about climate change science.  “As two of the world’s leading scientific bodies, we feel a responsibility to evaluate and explain what is known about climate change, at least the physical side of it, to concerned citizens, educators, decision makers and leaders, and to advance public dialogue about how to respond to the threats of climate change,” said NAS President Ralph J. Cicerone. “Our aim with this new resource is to provide people with easy access to the latest scientific evidence on climate change, including where scientists agree and where uncertainty still remains,” added Sir Paul Nurse, president of the Royal Society.  "We have enough evidence to warrant action being taken on climate change; it is now time for the public debate to move forward to discuss what we can do to limit the impact on our lives and those of future generations."

Climate Change: Evidence and Causes, written and reviewed by leading experts in both countries, lays out which aspects of climate change are well-understood, and where there is still uncertainty and a need for more research.  

Carbon dioxide (CO2) has risen to levels not seen for at least 800,000 years, and observational records dating back to the mid-19th century show a clear, long-term warming trend.  The publication explains that measurements that distinguish between the different forms of carbon in the atmosphere provide clear evidence that the increased amount of CO2 comes primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels, and discusses why the warming that has occurred along with the increase in CO2 cannot be explained by natural causes such as variations in the sun’s output.

The publication delves into other commonly asked questions about climate change, for example, what the slower rate of warming since the very warm year in 1998 means, and whether and how climate change affects the strength and frequency of extreme weather events.

Many effects of climate change have already become apparent in the observational record, but the possible extent of future impacts needs to be better understood.  For example, while average global sea levels have risen about 8 inches (20 cm) since 1901, and are expected to continue to rise, more research is needed to more accurately predict the size of future sea-level rise.  In addition, the chemical balance of the oceans has shifted toward a more acidic state, which makes it difficult for organisms such as corals and shellfish to form and maintain their shells.  As the oceans continue to absorb CO2, their acidity will continue to increase over the next century, along with as yet undetermined impacts on marine ecosystems and the food web.  Even if greenhouse gas emissions were to suddenly stop, it would take thousands of years for atmospheric CO2 to return to its levels before the industrial era.  If emissions continue unabated, future climate changes will substantially exceed those that have occurred so far, the publication says.

The authoring committee offers this brief explanation of the science of climate change to help inform policy debates about the choices available to nations and the global community for reducing the magnitude of climate change and adapting to its impacts.  The publication is available to download for free at www.nap.edu and as an interactive website at http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/events/a-discussion-on-climate-change-evidence-and-causes/.  The project was sponsored by the Raymond and Beverly Sackler U.S.-U.K. Scientific Forum.  The National Academy of Sciences is a private, independent nonprofit institution that provides science, technology, and health policy advice under a congressional charter granted to NAS in 1863.  For more information, visit http://national-academies.org. The Royal Society is a self-governing fellowship of many of the world’s most distinguished scientists drawn from all areas of science, engineering, and medicine. The society’s fundamental purpose, reflected in its founding charters of the 1660s, is to recognize, promote, and support excellence in science and to encourage the development and use of science for the benefit of humanity.  For further information, visit http://royalsociety.org.  Contacts:  William Kearney, Director of Media Relations, National Academy of Sciences, 202-334-2138; e-mail news@nas.edu.  Chloe McIvor, Press Officer,The Royal Society,020 7451 2514; e-mail chloe.mcivor@royalsociety.org."

Note:  graphic from British Council/Schools Online, MAPS - Carbon footprint radio show.  Some paragraphs in the Reference News Release (above) have been combined to take-up less space.

Posted by Kathy Meeh

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Even if greenhouse gas emissions were to suddenly stop, it would take thousands of years for atmospheric CO2 to return to its levels before the industrial era."

So even though the US and the western world have cut emissions, it seems with China and India increasing CO2 this is hopeless.

So really people who say "we have to make much more sacrifice for our grandkids" are fooling themselves. What is the point of causing people great hardship if it will make no difference in the outcome?

Anonymous said...

People love a cause.

Anonymous said...

Wow... so it's okay for the current generation to destroy the planet for the future? What is the "great hardship" that you are referring to? Upgrading your home to be more energy efficient (saving you money and providing jobs)? Driving a more fuel efficient vehicle (also saving you money)? Carpooling? Recycling? Conserving our water resources? Seem like positive and beneficial steps for now and the future.

Anonymous said...

Instead of "ordering" people to upgrade their homes, give them incentives to do so. Enough with the picking the pockets of Pacificans.

Anonymous said...

Interesting that the two agencies cited here are government agencies for countrys that have a political agenda in reference to climate change. Always go to the source, I say. Germany's experiment in green energy darned near bankrupted them. They are scaling back many of their onerous subsidies to the green industry.

Anonymous said...

Follow the money. Pretty much in all things.