Friday, December 16, 2011

San Francisco Regional outlook somewhat better

Chart1
Nonfarm Employment from 1/07

From Beacon Economics Winter Quarter Update, 12/16/11. "San Francisco Metropolitan District (MD) has fared better during the recession and recovery than the state overall. The region’s unemployment rate never reached into the double digits and total nonfarm employment fell 1.5 percentage points less than the state from pre-recession peak to po st-recession trough. Also, since bottoming out, the San Francisco region has outpaced the state by 0.15 percentage points in total nonfarm employment growth. From the second to the third quarter of 2011 total nonfarm employment increased 0.8%, more than the states increase of 0.2%. In that same period the unemployment rate in San Francisco decreased 0.13 percentage points to 8.3%.

Employment in the San Francisco MD is benefiting from a nationwide effort by companies to maximize efficiency instead of hiring new employees. To that end, the Professional, Scientific, and Technical employment sector continues to lead the area’s recovery, both in percentage growth and in number of positions added. Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector has also done well quarter over quarter, continuing its upward trajectory and indicating continuous tourism and recreation activity in the region. Seasonally adjusted, Leisure and Hospitality employment is now less than 1% below its pre-recession peak set in April of 2008.

Chart 2
Single Family Median home price from 1/08
The recent trends reinforce the view that the worst has passed. Beacon Economics is forecasting that total nonfarm employment in San Francisco will again reach 1 million by 2015. The unemployment rate will continue to decrease and will fall below 7% in the first half of 2013."

Posted by Kathy Meeh 

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is this blog supposed to be about Pacifica, or is Kathy being paid to cheerlead for Obama and Jerry Brown?

Kathy Meeh said...

"..being PAID to cheerlead for Obama and Jerry Brown" (If only it were so, I could consider taking the job for "free", ha!)

Anon (231) I think maybe you're unhappy that the research professionals indicate California and our region economies are improving. If it makes you happier, there may not be economic improvement in Pacifica, specific cities are not shown in the above study. However, a few months ago I recall our city manager (Steve Rhodes) indicating at city council, the economy here has picked-up some.

It may be the case that your brain has confused "criticize thinking" with critical thinking. You can do better, be happy, and do get-out-of-town once in a while.

Anonymous said...

Maybe Kathy could do an analysis of Prop 58 and Prop 13 and relate it to our local economy. Currently, there are homeowners in Pacifica with multiple rental properties (homes) protected under Props 13 and 58. Personally, I feel if you live in the property you should receive the exemption (keeps homes in the family.) If you rent out all the properties and you don't work, this is your primary source of income and it is a business in Pacifica. Does the City earn any of those tax dollars?

Kathy Meeh said...

For those who wish to continue the conversation Anon (12/18, 12:20am) began. CA Prop 58 and CA Prop 193. Also, Prop 13 Assessments. Legislative Prop 13a, and the quick view.

My "one note" is the critical need to pull this city together at a higher level through sustainable economic development, although the 1/3 each economic, social, environmental formula has been breached.

60% environmental (unproductive open space) and the blood quest for more is way off. Its beyond time to significantly build and bring way up the economic component. Now with limited significant choices, the easy answer for the past 20 years is and has been to develop the quarry (strategically off highway 1).

Anonymous said...

The only way to sustainable economic development in Pacifica is by ousting the incumbents. Sigh, what a dream...

News for you said...

You could replace the entire council with a bunch of rabidly pro-development anti-environmentalists and it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference.

Anonymous said...

News for you...Oh please, this is neither the place nor time for the truth.

Steve Sinai said...

It would make all the difference in the world. Then the only impediment would be the hippies who'd sue to stop anything bigger than a birdhouse from being built.

Anonymous said...

Only in Steve Sinai's alternate reality known as ... The Twilight Zone.

Anonymous said...

The hippies who believe a city's economy can be based on hiking trails and empty land are the ones living in their medical-marijuana induced Twilight Zone.

Anonymous said...

No decisions on economic development in Pacifica are made without the city's decision makers first partaking in medical marijuana, followed by a vigorous round of twirly-dancing.

Anonymous said...

Reduntant anons...Stogies and clog-dancing clearly haven't worked for you. Cart to puff and twirl?

todd bray said...

I'm with News For You, Even if Mike Bell, Kathy Meeh, Steve Sinai, Jim Wagner and Twitchie were our council it wouldn't make a bit of difference.

Anonymous said...

Does this have to be a package deal? Is it 1 for 1 or 2 for 1? What are the rules here?

Steve Sinai said...

That would be the council dream team!

Anonymous said...

Dream Team? And then you wake up and it's what the hell was I drinking?

Kathy Meeh said...

"...what the hell was I drinking?"

Anon (1153), whatever it was, you've been drinking it for 10 years.

Todd (1037), I think you get a pass since you were born in a country (Ireland) that was so far removed from the mainland it missed the industrial revolution. Hence, your agreement with "Spin for you" (12/18, 12:26pm) is understandable and expected. But, who is "Twitchie"? If its Mayor DeJarnatt "NO", not on our "dream team".

3 votes on city council has transformed this city over 10 years-- to a city without a visioned future.

Anonymous said...

I don't care how drunk I get it's no trade. Not even for Twitchie.

Kathy Meeh said...

"I don't care how drunk I get."

Well..., your indulgence and reckless abandonment is hurting the rest of us. Here's the get sober website.

todd bray said...

Kathy, I was born in SF, I'm a 4th generation Californian. Where on earth did you get the idea I'm from Ireland?

Twitchie is your sick twisted budski Mark.

And Steve, Mike, Kathy, you, Spankie and Twitchie would be a hilarious council, like some sort of Monty Python game show skit! It would be awesome to watch you all come to the realization that you are incapable of achieving what you always assumed could be achieved if only you had the right people on council. And then when you got that dead look behind your eyes, the one that will come I promise, maybe then you can stop all your belly achin'.

Kermit the Frog said...

How about a council made up of Hal Boehner, Dinah Verby, Nancy (kumbaya) Hall, Eileen Carey, John Curtis! They've been running this city for years, put them in charge now and have them defend their "vision" of Pacifica or solve the chaos it has caused.
Bray can pick his new Planning Commission. I would suggest Laurie Goldberg, Mary Kettleman, Jennifer Ball, Peter Loeb, and those that cannot be named.