Unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy, maybe the worst is over.
Beacon Economics is forecasting labor markets in the San Francisco metropolitan district, which combines Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties, to be on the verge of a revival. Following almost two years of continuous decline, total nonfarm employment in the San Francisco MD will begin a steady return to growth in the 2nd quarter of this year. In the short-term, job expansion will be led by growth in the finance, professional services, and hospitality industries. In the longer run, strong growth in the information sector will also contribute. As a result of jobs coming online, San Francisco's unemployment rate will continue declining from the 9.6% peak it reached in the 4th quarter of 2009. Over the course of 2010, the unemployment rate is projected to drop 1.3 points to 8.3% on a quarterly basis. But bear in mind, when federal stimulus programs end next year as scheduled, these trends will slow as the public/private consumption balance reverts to more traditional levels. While this will not inspire an uptick in the unemployment rate, or declines in total nonfarm employment, the rate of recovery will be temporarily slowed. Full article and source.
Posted by Kathy Meeh
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