Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Managed Retreat





Submitted by Jim Wagner

76 comments:

The Local Libertarian said...

Hi Jim, Thank you for the insightful post. Here is a little bit more detail on the areas affected by managed retreat (from City of Pacifica website):

ESA proposal for coastal retreat.

The Local Libertarian said...

The document is available for download here:

California Coastal Commission Residential Adaptation Policy Guidance

wake up Pacifica said...

The "fix" is in. Deirdre, Kaufman and Keener are "all in" for managed retreat. They've shoveled our tax dollars to Bob Batallio to codify their criminally selfish ideology with phony scientific justification to turn western Pacifica into a swamp.
These enemies of Pacifica are determined to destroy our city.

Anonymous said...

Now look up Agenda 21. If you do only then will you realize what is going on. They want us off the coast and on the train tracks in stacked housing. They will make it so difficult to build, own, maintain any and all property. AI bots. Watch out for the takeover of AI. This is not a movie. This is not a good book. This is happening.

Anonymous said...

This is copied from the other post on sea level rise. that post is wordy and not getting the read that it maybe should get.
this is from the Watcher

The Watcher said...
People, read this carefully " If a property is drawn into one of the vulnerability zones, it will be restricted in the amount of remodeling or modifications he or she can make to a property.
If a property is drawn into one of the vulnerability zones, it could make it difficult to get a loan or obtain insurance.
If a property is drawn into one of the vulnerability zones, the owner may be required to prove that he or she has sufficient resources to remove his or her home when the CCC and the city government decide it is necessary.? If you live in West Fairway, West Sharp Park, Rockaway, or Linda Mar you should be laser focused on this process. Someone will draw that arbitrary line designating you in "the zone". This could change your property rights, your equity position, pretty much your life. For the rest of you, what do you think will happen to property values citywide if half our city, with most of our businesses, is devalued or rendered worthless?

Anonymous said...

Someone will draw that arbitrary line designating you in "the zone".....
THAT SOMEONE is Bob Battalio!!! Deirdre, Keener and the hapless Digre will all sign off.

amy vegan said...

With all due respect to everyone worried about their homes due to sea level rise, climate change will bring higher temperatures, more water in the atmosphere, stronger storms. Homes in the hills will be threatened with wind damage, water intrusion, mudslides and landslides. I highly recommend everyone research climate change tipping points and possible effects of the planet surpassing 2C (Paris Agreement) above baseline. Learn about sea ice melting (eg: blue ocean events), ocean acidification, ocean anoxia, fisheries collapse, exponential heat increases leading to crop failures, more drought, more fire, etc.... Sea Level Rise is only one of many possible disasters the nation, states, counties and cities need to be preparing for.

Anonymous said...

With the exception of the "I got mines" (Deirdre, Keener, Loeb, Lancelle, Batallio, Hall, Kaufman and all of the rest of their fellow comrads) everyone in Pacifica should give up their homes and businesses and flee. The end is coming. They have decreed it and they are the final arbiters.

Anonymous said...

How come this SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHES BS is always happening ONLY for our secluded city?
What is going on behind the scenes. I am getting suspicious that maybe lobbyist are behind
all these damages they are doing to our gorgeous city.
I talked to another neighbor a while ago who is residing in Pacifica for 38 years and he told me a while ago, do not hold your breath on this city. It will never change for good and he has seen the same scenario for the last 37 years.
Obviously we as a small town, not owning the whole Pacific Ocean.
Look at all developed cities from Nor Cal to South Cal.
Shall I name them ?
Isn't Monterey very close to us and right in front of Pacific Ocean ?
How about Carmel, Pebble BEach, Pismo Beach, Santa Cruz, Malibu, Santa Monica, La jolla, Del Mar, San Diego, Encinita ,... and thousans more.
I all those cities, they encourage lots of Investment in order to bring tourist and money and wealth to their cities.
In our Town, we are against everything last 37 years or maybe 50 years because one day there will be a storm or so.
NOW, to people who are always against everything, our city has very limited budget to even fix it's own roads. So by Cutting all investors or individuals who would like to build houses or remodel or so which in turn bring lots of money to our city, would you be able to chip in millions of dollars to protect our non developed city from storms or sonomy from your own pocket ?
If we wouldn't kicked most investors out last few years,we would have a lot more money to build sea walls or anything that protects our town.
Can you tell me by cutting wealth and money from getting to our city how are you going to protect Pacifica ?
With just 150 pages of paper written to make any attempt not to build anything ???????
People of Pacifica please wake up and look at out neighboring cities and counties. They are getting richer and richer and we are getting poor.
We have nothing less in beauty and climate than Carmel or Monterey and geographically we are very close. We just do not have welcoming attitude to any investor. It does not matter some one is out of State or In State or Any other place. We need their Capital to build our city. I am personally against building Skyscrapers or Giant Shopping Malls but we can make a beautiful boutique style city with lots of amenities and wealth to protect our city and make a better place for our children. We can have the best Schools in the whole northern California.
Think about What do we have or what are we know for at this time except the natural beauty?

Chicken Little said...

Dinosaurs will once again walk the earth and the hominids will throw rocks at them. We'll all be fine!
So Verbose Vegan, how exactly do we prepare for the end of days? You scenario doesn't leave much hope for anything. I rather remain a little skeptical and keep stalwarts such as yourself at bay and as far away from making policy as possible.

Markus said...

A big AMEN on that Chicken Little! She did leave out a couple of biggies, including the iconic asteroid. Why even try, we're all gonna die.

wake up Pacifica said...

The NOBIES who control this town don't care about the well-being of Pacifica. They only care that "they've got theirs". Potholes, choked roads, leaky sewers, failing sea walls, crumbling infrastructure, red-lined districts and failing businesses are ALL good. Why???
Because it keeps the outsiders away and drives anyone with some entrepreneurial aspirations away. These stingy, sanctimonious and self proclaimed know-it-alls love our dysfunction. They don't care about the collateral damage as long as they benefit and others pay. These are the real enemies of Pacifica. Read Cynthia Kaufman's book. Listen to Deirdre and Keener pontificating and bullshitting the public from their bought and payed for thrones. Watch Digre dribble and drool and you'll understand what is really wrong with our town.
If only the adults would pay attention, get involved and vote.

The Local Libertarian said...

@ Amy Vegan

Everyone dies. I am not worried about the extinction of species. Of any species, including man. Life itself will evolve and new specifies will arise.

Please stop with the fear mongering.

The climate warming fear mongering is similar to religious doomsday prophecies.
Eschatology (Doomsday-Cult'ing) has been the standard fare of religious nuts for 1000s of years.

amy vegan said...

Not fear mongering, folks. Just saying, "research it yourself" and know that sea level rise is only one of many issues communities will face.

Anonymous said...

Fix Pacifica: home of climate change deniers?

Anonymous said...

10:16. What a completely asinine and untrue statement. Your use of his slimey smear tactics indicates to me that you are probably a Trumper. Grow up! Challenge the bullshit, faux-science propaganda being spewed out of the asses of the Nobie «  I got mines ». They are illegitimate, dishonest and only interested in promoting their own ideology. They do not care about the collateral damage.

amy vegan said...

Here's a SM County assessment: http://seachangesmc.com/vulnerability-assessment/

The Local Libertarian said...

10:16 -- I am not denying climate change. Climate changes every year. And long term trends are always changing. And always have been. Its about the degrees of change.
And what we can do about them.

The Earth will crash into Sun. Someday.
Meteorites are changing the mass of the planet. Everyday.
Solar Systems revolve around Galaxies. And the possibility of an inter-galactical collision or an inter-galactical storms always exists.
And finally the Big Crunch when it will all end. So what?

We have to deal with human timescales. Blaming ourselves for pollution because the future generations might suffer is akin to blaming our ancestors for developing civilization and setting us on the course for planet killing pollution.

Cut the Bullshit. OK? Nature will evolve into a different setup. Life will go on. With or without humans. But right now, in the interest of human timescales and local property owners, what are our PRACTICAL options? what can we do to help our neighborhoods?

Stop fantasizing about the future. And romanticizing the past. Live in the present.

Anonymous said...

Fix Pacifica: home of anti-science

Face Reality said...

Here is an idea to help our community. Face reality. Funding for geoengineering to prevent every house in the USA/California/Bay Area/SM County/Pacifica is not possible. Priority funding nationwide will go to military bases, airports, railroads, harbors, nuclear power plants, power and water infrastructure, freeways, major roads, light rail systems, bridges, downtown financial districts and so on. New York and Miami (other places in the East coast) will need funding first. What will be left over? Cities in the Bay Area that generate huge amount of revenue for the county such as FacebookLand and GoogleVille. etc. will be prioritized over low revenue cities like Pacifica. And who will pay for this? Our taxes. So, reality check. Who is going to pay? How much are YOU willing to increase your own taxes to protect low lying or hillside (landslide prone) homes in the city and county? Who here thinks Pacifica will be a national, state or county priority? I have a house in the hills. I am under no illusion that my house will be safe. More heat=more water vapor=stronger storms, more erosion. Folks who are truly concerned should sell their homes now to Chinese investors while they still hold top value. Then move uphill and inland. It won't kill anyone to live in San Bruno.

Face Reality said...

So sorry. I hope this can be edited:

Here is an idea to help our community. Face reality. Funding for geoengineering to ***PROTECT*** every house in the USA/California/Bay Area/SM County/Pacifica is not possible. Priority funding nationwide will go to military bases, airports, railroads, harbors, nuclear power plants, power and water infrastructure, freeways, major roads, light rail systems, bridges, downtown financial districts and so on. New York and Miami (other places in the East coast) will need funding first. What will be left over? Cities in the Bay Area that generate huge amount of revenue for the county such as FacebookLand and GoogleVille. etc. will be prioritized over low revenue cities like Pacifica. And who will pay for this? Our taxes. So, reality check. Who is going to pay? How much are YOU willing to increase your own taxes to protect low lying or hillside (landslide prone) homes in the city and county? Who here thinks Pacifica will be a national, state or county priority? I have a house in the hills. I am under no illusion that my house will be safe. More heat=more water vapor=stronger storms, more erosion. Folks who are truly concerned should sell their homes now to Chinese investors while they still hold top value. Then move uphill and inland. It won't kill anyone to live in San Bruno.

amy vegan said...

For those of you who had to resort to insults such as calling me a fear mongerer or verbose vegan, (rude and lame), I suggest you get up-to-date on the tipping points/effects of climate change so you'll understand that sea level rise isn't the worst of it. Read work by the following scientists: Andrew Glikson, Paul Beckwith, Peter Carter, Peter Wadhams, James Hanson, Michael Mann, Jason Box, Eric Rignot. There are others. This is a good list to start with.

Markus said...

You make some good points Face Reality. Ironically, we have Hwy 1 which is our curse and blessing. Historically its been a divisive feature for Pacifica. On the other hand, it is a major highway for West coast travel. I would think that funds would be found to keep this vital artery open.

Anonymous said...

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

New York Magazine info on climate change for the deniers.

Face Reality said...

@Markus.

CalTrans reports on roads that will be affected by climate change. There are many more.

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2017/12/27/caltrans-rising-waters-from-climate-change-will-endanger-bay-area-freeways/

https://sf.curbed.com/2018/1/9/16869176/caltrans-climate-change-2018-weather-rain

Just google "SFO" + "sea level rise" for a wider perspective. What will be funded for protection nationwide, statewide, county wide is MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE.

Face Reality said...

Here is sea level rise prediction map where the user can adjust the height of water rise from 1 foot to 10 feet. Look at Pacifica. Now look at the interior of the BAY from SFO to San Jose to Vallejo. Compare it to Pacifica. Think again about funding and what the state and county will use to protect. Think logically, not emotionally, about where money should or will be allocated.

https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#10/37.5767/-122.3918?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=10&unit=feet&pois=hide

Anonymous said...

Recent talk at Chico State, March 2018, on the state of the planet.
https://media.csuchico.edu/media/0_2ljujwjg

Anonymous said...

https://fair.org/home/we-are-talking-billions-of-people-displaced-by-sea-level-rise/. Billions will be displaced

Country Joe said...

"There ain't no time to wonder why, Whoopee, we're all going to die"!
They must have foresaw SLR in the 60's.

Markus said...

At Face Reality. Nice try. I read you loud and clear. How about a few more links or maybe I'll just get my crystal ball out of the closet. Lol.

Face Reality said...

Here is NYC's recent resiliency report. http://www1.nyc.gov/assets/orr/pdf/NYC_Climate_Resiliency_Design_Guidelines_v2-0.pdf

I watched the Chico State lecture linked above. Did you watch it? Agree it's well worth paying attention to.

Anonymous said...

Markus. Links to what kind of data are you looking for?

Anonymous said...

hey markus. maybe this will be interesting for ya?
union of concerned scientists report. completely legit.

https://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/global-warming/science-and-impacts/global-warming-impacts#utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fb

Markus said...

Thanks for sending me all the links. This post is about Managed Retreat. I am not denying that there's global warming which leads to SLR. There's no doubt that eventually all coastal and Bayshore communities will have to back away from the encroaching sea. I am just not sure about the timeline and also very interested in finding out just what all the other communities are doing or planning to do about shoring up or armoring their existing barriers. Is managed retreat a big part of their solutions. If so, are they looking at designating areas as worthless and advising owners to start packing and giving up their property. What I do know is that in Pacifica it would render the entire city not viable. What little we have, is on our coast. Another thing to consider is that the use of fossil fuels will be diminished considerably in the next couple of decades, which may slow down a bit the SLR process. Also, we just don't have certain knowledge of new and innovative technologies coming down the pipeline. I just think Managed Retreat will kill this city.

Anonymous said...

Not doing managed retreat will kill this city.

Anonymous said...

RE: " shoring up or armoring their existing barriers," the main point is- where is the $ going to come from to shore up pacifica when the predicament is so huge and national, state, and local major infrastructure is at threat? there is not enough $ or proven technology in the world to fix this worldwide.

Anonymous said...

Better leave now then, 12:32. Bon voyage.

Markus said...

Oh, I totally get it now! Thank you for your in depth explanation. Yes, managed retreat is the formula to keep Pacifica going. Hilarious!

Anonymous said...

5/5/18 @ 12:32pm
If you're so worried about SLR then just move the fuck away. The earth has been evolving for billions of years and it will keep evolving for billions more. We don't need apocalyptic little pussies like you who don't know the difference between years and centuries, babysitting us. Spend your own welfare check on yourself. Leave my fucking hard earned money alone.

Anonymous said...

1:01 said "where is the $ going to come from to shore up pacifica when the predicament is so huge and national, state, and local major infrastructure is at threat? there is not enough $ or proven technology in the world to fix this worldwide."

Exactly. If you think you're going to build seawalls big enough and strong enough to keep Beach Blvd. and all the infrastructure from being taken by the sea, not only are you dreaming but you have no plan for how to pay for it. Refusal to consider managed retreat will result in a cost of billions of dollars that Pacifica will never have and can't get from other sources. And the end result will be the loss of Beach Blvd. anyway. Managed retreat will not kill this city, but inflexible opposition to it certainly will.

Markus said...

Anom 1:01. You have a short and narrow mindset. Pacifica may be somewhat impovrished, but we have a river running through here, called Hwy 1. This vital artery represents a lot of wealth and power for so many communities, including SF and all the way to Santa Barbara, LA and San Diego. Lots of wealth! Money is always used to protect existing money. This artery simply can't close for any length of time. This is probably a big reason for the CCC to state that "Managed Retreat is not feasible for Pacifica". If you use managed retreat for everything west of the Hwy, you are in essence drawing the line of defense at the hwy. Can't have that! Also, all the work needed, doesn't have to be done at once. We are talking about several decades. Meanwhile, we must shore up little by little. This city should be enjoying a vibrant economy because of our beautiful coastal location. Failed policies of the "Nothing for Pacifica" bunch, over the past 3+ decades, clearly to blame. Now, they want to give up what little we have. So selfish.

Anonymous said...

Mother Nature is playing a much longer game than we are. And she always bats last.

Anonymous said...

The Coastal Commission never stated that managed retreat is not feasible for Pacifica. There has already been a managed retreat project in Pacifica.

Anonymous said...

I am so thankful to be surrounded by so many experts on what mother nature has in store for us.
When I first heard about sea level rise, I was worried that some people were just repeating the kind of mass hysteria that displaced rationality and common sense at the Salem Witch trials, or during McCarthyism or in the mass building of bomb shelters in the 1950's, but now I've seen the light -- the likelihood of it being just part of the cycle that will lead us back, eventually, to another ice age, is a foolish notion. It's now obvious that the only real solution is to abandon the coasts and to head to the high ground in the inland states.
Thank you for this timely wake up call, and for convincing me that the danger is imminent and that there's absolutely nothing that any of us can do about it.
I do feel badly for all the people in all of the other cities on the east and west coasts who are investing time and money into projects and infrastructure that represent their vision of a better future, when the truth is that only we, in Pacifica, can see that it's all futile, and we are not wasting our money in making such stupid improvements. Only the arrival of the apocalypse will show them all that we've been right all along.

Rudy Giuliani said...

Nonsense. No collusion, no sea level rise, no global warming.

I am telling you something you didn't already know.

wake up Pacifica said...

The Apocalypse arrived in Pacifica when the NOBY's and Commies stole our government.

Anonymous said...

10:16 Your misplaced sarcasm only demonstrates your foolishness. Nobody is saying do nothing.

Anonymous said...

The sarcasm here is hilarious. Markus, run for city council!

Markus said...

"Nobody is saying do nothing". Really? Managed Retreat = Do nothing.

Anonymous said...

article about north carolina sea level rise.

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/technology/article210413904.html

Anonymous said...

Manage, managed, managing: be in charge of; to take care of and make decisions about; to have control of; to bring about or succeed in doing something, esp. something difficult

Markus said...

I don't have a problem with "Managed". I'd prefer to hear Managed Fight or Fortification instead of Retreat. Nothing like hoisting the white flag in anticipation of a upcoming battle for survival.

Anonymous said...

If you think managed retreat means doing nothing, you clearly don't understand the concept.

Anonymous said...

I don't think it means doing nothing. I think it means actively ignoring or avoiding the things that need to be done to maintain and preserve our assets. Either way, it's irresponsible and reckless.

Anonymous said...

4:59 You have demonstrated that you do not understand managed retreat as a concept.

Anonymous said...

I wish Fix Pacifica would adopt managed retreat with most of these dumb posts.

Markus said...

Agree with you but does it mean we don't even play the game?

The Ghost of Jim Vreeland said...

Don't any of you remember the name "Orrin Pilkey"? You should. He is the name that me and my cohorts on City Council (i.e., DeJarnatt, Lancelle, Digre) and, of course, our mentors, Pacificans for Sustainable Development (in all of its forms and incarnations) used to namedrop as we executed his mission. Please, Google his WIki and check out his books "Retreat from a Rising Sea" and "The Last Beach". You'll see that the master plan for all this started many years ago and is being carried out systematically and religiously by the people who really run this town. You idiots on FP just don't get it, do you?

The Local Libertarian said...

Friends of Pacifica City Council

http://q13fox.com/2018/05/08/seattle-residents-name-called-by-council-member-kshama-sawant-says-they-are-appalled-by-sawants-behavior/

Anonymous said...

I went to the May 10th meeting. This is what I heard: "$97 million dollars per mile for a sea wall."

Anonymous said...

Here is an image of 6' of Sea Level Rise in the Bay Area. This was made using the Sea Level Rise Viewer Tool from NOAA. The tool is here:
https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/


Click on the imgur link to see San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda counties. Ask yourself where will the $ come from.
https://imgur.com/a/5bCvpPl

Anonymous said...

Note: 6' sea level rise might occur (if at all) in about a 1,000 years.
Meanwhile, run away, stop your fear mongering and let Pacifica residents enjoy their ocean front town.

Anonymous said...

"Note: 6' sea level rise might occur (if at all) in about a 1,000 years.
Meanwhile, run away, stop your fear mongering and let Pacifica residents enjoy their ocean front town."

You going to enjoy paying for a $97 million dollar sea wall?

Anonymous said...

6 feet of sea level rise is now predicted by about 2100, or roughly 80 years from now.

A Question of Science said...

As long as were predicting, what's the weather going to be on Mother's Day 2100?

Anonymous said...

I predict Trump will be re-elected.

Anonymous said...

Overcast, high 50's to low 60's, slight chance of rain

Markus said...

Key word appears to be "predict". To put it in perspective, 80+ years ago, Pacifica didn't exist. Now, some of us are advocating cutting out the heart or brain in order to save the rest of the city. All based on prediction. Let's face it, saving the coast is much different than saving what is on the coast. So all you advocating Managed Retreat, when are you all moving out? Don't forget, putting up a fight in the next few decades, is futile.

Anonymous said...

"some of us are advocating cutting out the heart or brain in order to save the rest of the city." A bit overstated, doncha think?

Nobody is this thread is actually advocating managed retreat in any specific area like Beach Blvd. They're just trying to 'splain to you your misunderstanding of what managed retreat means.

Anonymous said...

But then some people don't want to spend $97 million on a sea wall. Whatcha gon' do?

A Question of Science said...

And where do you use manage retreat in Pacifica? If you let the ocean in anywhere it will degrade everything. Most of us saw what happened on Beach Bl. The ocean slipped under the "retaining" wall and we had the street closed. You let it in, it's going to want to stay and eat.

Anonymous said...

We've already had managed retreat in Pacifica. Get a clue.

"The Pacifica State Beach Managed Retreat project has resulted in a reduction of flood hazards, increase in functioning wetland habitat, and expanded recreation opportunities. This project was identified as a Top Restored Beach by the American Shore and Beach Preservation Association in 2005, and remains a leading example of a well-planned, well-executed coastal project involving the cooperative efforts of the local community, state and federal agencies, scientists, and engineers."
http://www.cakex.org/case-studies/restoration-and-managed-retreat-pacifica-state-beach

Sharon said...

NOAA'S SLR viewer seems to indicate flooding in Linda Mar regardless of the beach managed retreat treatment. If I'm using it correctly. Also, what is the cost of moving our infrastructure vs the cost of installing real seawall protection?

Anonymous said...

"what is the cost of moving our infrastructure vs the cost of installing real seawall protection?" Good question. Build a huge seawall the entire length of Linda Mar beach or move the sewage pump station and sewer lines to the other side of the highway? Either one will cost upwards of $100 million. Who knows how much? Where will the money come from? Or should we do nothing and "stop your fear mongering and let Pacifica residents enjoy their ocean front town"?

Dan Murray said...

Sharon @ 8:19 a.m

Google "Lake Mathilda, California" and there is a wikipedia page about the former wetlands/marsh area that was located in the front of Linda Mar between Crespi and LM Blvd. It was filled in the 1950s when the Linda Mar subdivison was constructed and has been periodically problematic over the years since.

The Pacifica Senior Center on Crespi was built on the old Duck Farm property. The building was originally Pacific Bell or AT&T. From what I remember, the salt water below the building seeped into the telephone cables eroding the lines to the point where the telephone company moved out (late 60's/mid 70's ?). i recall that even into the 70's, heavy rains would cause the ground water to rise and enter some homes on the west side of Anza and possibly on Arguello. The shopping center would also flood, but I think that was due to San Pedro Creek overflowing its banks before the creek was restored.

While not a professional, I think it might be reasonable to assume that rising sea level would possibly cause a rise in groundwater in the old Lake Mathilda bed that any enhanced seawall could not block. This might account for the NOAA's projected SLR flooding of lower Linda Mar.

Sharon said...

Makes sense Dan, thanks for the info. I know there is constant work going on to reinforce the dykes around the Netherlands and they have a network of windmills used to pump water out of the lowlands. Sounds like Linda Mar will need some kind of system to stay dry. The SLR shows flooding back to DeSolo.